domingo, 4 de agosto de 2019

NEW STRATEGIES, NEW NUCLEAR HAZARDS.



The resignation by the United States and Russia to extend their respective responsibilities in the INF Treaty, signed in 1987, redifine a new strategy in the regime of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons in a global world, within a multipolar movement.

The acronym in English for the Treaty of Nuclear Forces of Intermediate Reach, negotiated in the middle of the Cold War by presidents Ronald Reagan and Michail Gorbachev, not only meant the elimination of one type of weapons, but also opened the way for its control. When the key document expires today, an important global security instrument falls, to which the leaders concerned had to study and appreciate more.


Reading the content of the Treaty,
that was a milestone in the Blocking process between blocks, we can get an idea of ​​the amount of opportunities lost by both parties to cut much more the nuclear arsenal, in the resolution of regional conflicts and in having ended much earlier with the Cold War.


To propose for the first time a reduction of armaments, instead of marking a roof, led to the destruction of almost 2,700 missiles of short, medium and intermediate range. All ground, nuclear and non-nuclear missiles were eliminated, with a range of 500-5,500 kilometers.


By eliminating missiles essentially based in Europe, the treaty lessened the threat of nuclear war on the continent and cleared the way for the negotiation of tactical and chemical nuclear weapons, as well as that of conventional European forces.


Russia and the United States have certified the death of the treaty last Friday accusing each other of violating it. The White House talks about Moscow's refusal to destroy a 1,700-kilogram, eight-meter-long cruise missile known as Novator 9M729 (SSC-8, according to NATO classification) and that Washington alleges it violates the treaty by exceeding 500 kilometers range.


Russia considered this requirement inadmissible and at a press conference the defense minister claimed that the missile was within the range specified in the treaty because it only had a range of 480 kilometers.


The Kremlin on the other hand has assured that Washington has repeatedly violated the treaty with the placement of interceptive missiles within the framework of the missile shield. Other violations would include the manufacture of drones or drones with weapons and Mark-41 systems to launch medium-range cruise missiles, which the United States wants to deploy in Poland and Romania.

The Russian Defense Minister has said that Moscow is willing to take unprecedented transparency measures, above its obligations in the INF, but its attempts and proposals have been torpedoed in recent months by US negotiators who continue to launch the ultimatum on the Novator He warned that the decision to leave the treaty puts START-3 at risk, which limits the offensive strategic armament and expires in 2021, and whose negotiations remain stagnant.


American diplomacy has placed the emphasis on what President Donald Trump really pursues with his withdrawal from the agreement; "to start a new chapter in search of a new era of arms control" beyond bilateral treaties and that favors the participation of other powers, read, China.


The question would be in this new strategy if the United States has the ability to counteract a coup from China. The answer is No. Nor from Russia.

Two years ago, before the Senate, the former head of the Pacific Command of the United States Armed Forces, Harry Harris said that China has "the largest and most diverse missile force in the world, with an inventory of more than 2000 ballistic missiles and of cruise. " This is a country that is not part of any disarmament treaty.


Russia is the country with the largest reserve of nuclear weapons among these the most powerful bomb, the SS-18 "Satan" heavy intercontinental ballistic missile. Experts estimate that it has 55 of the deadliest weapons, but only five would be necessary to destroy the east coast of the United States in case of confrontation. I just hope that Americans know all this.

Trump contemplates the agreements signed during the Cold War and START-3 as reflections of a non-existent bipolar world, wants a new focus on strategic stability on new principles, as has been his policy since his arrival at the White House, demonstrating substantial progress and No step by step. But a new approach would require a high level of trust that does not exist, neither with Russia nor with China.



"We will give a symmetrical response. Our American partners denounced their participation in the treaty and we will do the same," said President Vladimir Putin, meeting with his foreign ministers, Sergei Lavrov, and Defense, Sergei Shoigú.


The Russians denounced that the United States began to prepare the ground to leave the INF two years ago when they began the work of manufacturing short and medium range missiles in one of its military plants in Arizona, managed by the Raythone Foundation.


A satellite image shown at a press conference in Moscow shows the plant where, according to its version, it increased its perimeter by 44% and its staff by 2,000 people.


The United States Congress allocated $ 58 million to Defense in November 2017 clearly intended for the "development of a medium-range land missile," which confirms, according to Moscow, its allegations.


Russia and the US-led West are currently experiencing much greater tensions than in the Cold War and this unstoppable movement seems to have begun when Moscow interfered in the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine and Crimea was annexed. This had a major escalation after the war in Syria, where rebel groups, supported by the United States and Arab allies, seek to exterminate the government of Damascus, backed by Russia.


Washington warned that on February 2, the INF withdrawal process would begin, which will be completed in six months. From that moment on, it would be free to position missile systems in Europe and Russia would do the same in its bordering territories with the European Union or other geographical areas. One of the two leaders signing the agreement, Gorbachev, has warned that after this will come chaos.




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